Cosco Shipping Holdings predicts a profit of $410 million for the first three quarters of the year, citing the recovery in volume and higher container rates, according to a statement on the carrier's website. The company reported a $1.4 billion loss for 2016, owing the loss to weaker pricing even as volume for its shipping line increased.
In addition to an improving market, the company said synergies from the merger of Cosco and China Shipping Container Lines and the sale of its stake in the Qingdao Qianwan Container Terminal also boosted profitability. Maritime analyst Drewry estimates carriers will post profits of about $5 billion this year after securing higher annual contract rates on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trades.
The positive forecast from Cosco highlights the continued strength of the market even though spot rates slid through most of the peak season despite strong growth in volumes that led industry analysts to predict a six-year high for the global container trade.
Carriers have generally benefited from strong contract rates, though. The effects of carrier consolidation began to emerge this year, with rates in the third quarter about 39 percent higher year over year in the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trade lanes, according to Drewry Shpping Consultants.
Data from Container Trades Statistics shows that first-half volume on Asia-Europe grew by 5.3 percent to 7.9 million TEU and continued to increase through August when 1.4 million TEU were moved on the trade, up 4 percent on the same month last year. US imports from Asia, an indicator of the health of the trans-Pacific trade, were up 4.2 percent in the first half to 7.3 million TEU
Despite the increased volume, overcapacity has prevented spot rates from rising. The slide has been most pronounced on the Asia-Europe trade, where carriers continue to add mega-ship capacity. The latest rate from Shanghai to North Europe per TEU has fallen 25.9 percent from July 28, to $714, but is still up 2.1 percent year over year, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI). A similar pattern is at play on the Shanghai-Mediterranean trade, with rates down 21.6 percent from July 28 to $692, but still up 19.7 percent from last year.
Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen told JOC’s Container Trade Europe conference in Hamburg that he was “cautiously optimistic” about the market, pointing out that although the rates have been falling, they remain well above the lows recorded in 2016.
Although current trans-Pacific spot rates are now lower than the same time last year, rates spent the summer and peak season at much higher levels than last year. The SCFI rate per FEU to the US West Coast is down 16.1 percent to $1,414, and the rate to the East Coast is down 17.6 percent to $1,991. The current negative year-over-year comparisons are due to the sudden jump in rates following Hanjin Shipping’s bankruptcy, when shippers were hit with substantial rate hikes of almost 50 percent.
The 2017 to 2018 contracting season in the eastbound Pacific showed a marked improvement over last year, with rates to the West Coast of about $1,200 per FEU for larger customers, and up to about $1,500 per FEU for smaller BCOs. That compares with some rates that were below $800 per FEU the previous year. Maersk Line, buoyed by improved contract rates in the Asia-Europe trade, reported improved profit in the second quarter, and it expects to continue profitability through the end of the year. Asia-Europe service contracts, which last about three months, are shorter than trans-Pacific contracts, most of which run for one year, beginning on May 1.
